Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
