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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But this year's race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still