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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd